Planning assumptions reference
Projection Assumptions 2026
Long-term inflation, borrowing, and asset-class return assumptions used as source values for OpenBook Planning projection calculators.
Current guideline snapshot
Key long-term assumptions
Plain-language context
What this reference means
These assumptions are long-term projection inputs. They are not short-term forecasts and they are not personalized investment recommendations.
OpenBook Planning can use them as transparent default anchors while still allowing users to change assumptions inside calculators where the tool is designed for scenario testing.
Reference table
2026 guideline assumptions used by calculators
| Item | Rate | Context | Source type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation rate | 2.1% | Long-term guideline assumption | FP Canada / IFP guideline |
| YMPE or MPE growth rate | 3.1% | Inflation plus 1 percentage point | FP Canada / IFP guideline |
| Shelter projection considerations | 3.1% | Inflation plus 1 percentage point | FP Canada / IFP guideline |
| Borrowing rate | 4.4% | Long-term guideline assumption | FP Canada / IFP guideline |
| Short-term | 2.4% | Nominal expected return | FP Canada / IFP guideline |
| Fixed income | 3.2% | Nominal expected return | FP Canada / IFP guideline |
| Canadian equities | 6.3% | Nominal expected return | FP Canada / IFP guideline |
| U.S. equities | 6.4% | Nominal expected return | FP Canada / IFP guideline |
| International developed-market equities | 6.6% | Nominal expected return | FP Canada / IFP guideline |
| Emerging market equities | 7.5% | Nominal expected return | FP Canada / IFP guideline |
OpenBook modelling layer
Tax-character assumptions used by the non-registered calculator
These tax-character fields are OpenBook Planning modelling assumptions for modelling taxable-account mechanics. They are separated from the FP Canada / IFP expected-return assumptions.
| Asset class | Interest or ordinary income | Eligible dividends | Foreign income | Capital-gain turnover |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash and short-term | 2.4% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Fixed income | 2.8% | 0% | 0% | 15% |
| Canadian equity | 0% | 3.2% | 0% | 18% |
| U.S. equity | 0% | 0% | 1.5% | 12% |
| International developed equity | 0% | 0% | 2.8% | 14% |
| Emerging market equity | 0% | 0% | 2.2% | 20% |
Notes and assumptions
These values are source-linked planning assumptions, not personalized recommendations. Calculator users can override assumptions where the tool permits. OpenBook Planning separates official guideline assumptions from local modelling assumptions such as tax-character splits, turnover, fees, and reinvestment mechanics.
Official sources
These links document the official sources used for this reference.